{"id":19,"date":"2025-10-22T15:39:09","date_gmt":"2025-10-22T14:39:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/?page_id=19"},"modified":"2026-01-20T18:46:43","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T17:46:43","slug":"research","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/","title":{"rendered":"My Research"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-text-subtitle has-x-large-font-size is-style-text-subtitle--1\"><strong>Event-driven valuation &amp; risk in biotech<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">This paper explores an <strong>event-driven approach to biotech valuation<\/strong>, using MedinCell as a case study to illustrate how <strong>binary clinical and regulatory milestones<\/strong> translate into valuation risk. Moving beyond static rNPV frameworks, it applies a <strong>portfolio-based event-tree model combined with quarterly VaR and cVaR metrics<\/strong> to quantify the timing, magnitude, and asymmetry of downside and upside around key catalysts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Medincell_EventDriven-3.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of Medincell_EventDriven.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-5feb8b79-72ac-4e92-ab82-db2d842a33ef\" href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Medincell_EventDriven-3.pdf\">Medincell_EventDriven<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Medincell_EventDriven-3.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-5feb8b79-72ac-4e92-ab82-db2d842a33ef\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center is-style-text-subtitle has-custom-medium-grey-color has-text-color has-link-color has-x-large-font-size wp-elements-7a29a94aaa57c1dab6367009832a0882 is-style-text-subtitle--2\"><strong>Licensing Deal Valuation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-large-font-size\"><strong>Valuation &amp; Sensitivity for Licensing Deals covering a portfolio of products<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">When product identities, royalties, and milestones are only partially disclosed, headline \u201cbillion-dollar\u201d deal values tell us very little about true economic value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">To address this, I applied a <strong>portfolio event-tree + Monte Carlo framework<\/strong> to build an <strong>Event-driven risk attribution<\/strong> &nbsp;showing how each milestone (IND, Phase 3 start, approval, sales thresholds) shifts portfolio value up or down, and <em>when<\/em> those inflection points occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Medincell_Abbvie_agreement.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of Medincell_Abbvie_agreement.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-1c691f7a-dcd9-4d26-8cdf-4c90f88ed638\" href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Medincell_Abbvie_agreement.pdf\">Medincell_Abbvie_agreement<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Medincell_Abbvie_agreement.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-1c691f7a-dcd9-4d26-8cdf-4c90f88ed638\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-custom-medium-grey-color has-text-color has-link-color has-large-font-size wp-elements-5e659e1ec575e894bc657bdbca28845e\"><strong>How Much Is a Licensing Deal Worth When the Terms Are Unclear?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\">In many biotech licensing announcements, key economic details, like royalty tiers or sales-milestone thresholds, are disclosed only in broad terms. Yet these seemingly small uncertainties can dramatically alter how a deal should be valued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Medincel_licensing_agreement_04122025.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of Medincel_licensing_agreement_04122025.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-8a4bf18f-79e1-49db-8504-d486479da1a0\" href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Medincel_licensing_agreement_04122025.pdf\">Medincel_licensing_agreement_04122025<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Medincel_licensing_agreement_04122025.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-8a4bf18f-79e1-49db-8504-d486479da1a0\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-8ee71fa9 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--60)\">\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading alignwide has-text-align-center has-custom-medium-grey-color has-text-color has-link-color has-x-large-font-size wp-elements-7c90d7d2a5452b30d864a97d0098cf23\">Therapeutics Royalty Investments<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-custom-light-grey-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-d2f24df74909ddb43e36a5c06695ff0f\">Therapeutics royalty investments have become a distinct asset class in life sciences, providing access to biopharma innovation through diversified royalty streams. This chapter introduces a quantamental approach to valuing companies and assets in this sector.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-custom-medium-grey-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-fee195f48b823a8023affd37df77f0cb\">Daraxonrasib: Independent Valuation of Royalty Pharma\u2019s Royalty Deal<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left is-style-text-subtitle has-custom-light-grey-color has-text-color has-link-color has-small-font-size wp-elements-5e646341378b9d14f334d1a2e43a9be0 is-style-text-subtitle--3\">This paper presents a detailed valuation of the daraxonrasib royalty deal between Royalty Pharma and Revolution Medicines.<br>Using epidemiology-driven peak-sales modeling and a probabilistic scenario engine, it assesses commercial outcomes and royalty economics.<br>Results include rNPV, IRR, scenario distributions, and sensitivity to major value drivers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Daraxonrasib_Royalties_Audit_20112025-1.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of Daraxonrasib_Royalties_Audit_20112025.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-5069f744-acbc-4214-93f5-d24eae613959\" href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Daraxonrasib_Royalties_Audit_20112025-1.pdf\">Daraxonrasib_Royalties_Audit_20112025<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Daraxonrasib_Royalties_Audit_20112025-1.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-5069f744-acbc-4214-93f5-d24eae613959\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-custom-medium-grey-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-ee20fab5676f0bc1f9e77454856ad483\"><strong>Quarterly Update \u2013 Q3 2025: Royalty Pharma (RPRX)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-custom-light-grey-color has-text-color has-link-color has-small-font-size wp-elements-fdc4b8c6337e780076a03e796223819c\">This new update applies the <em>Quantamental Valuation and Risk Framework<\/em> to Royalty Pharma\u2019s latest quarterly disclosures (November 2025). It highlights revisions to portfolio assumptions, valuation impacts, and key clinical catalysts expected through 2026.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/RPRX_postQ325_update.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of RPRX_postQ325_update.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-35595bf2-7538-42b6-ae05-b11fc24dd26b\" href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/RPRX_postQ325_update.pdf\">RPRX_postQ325_update<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/RPRX_postQ325_update.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-35595bf2-7538-42b6-ae05-b11fc24dd26b\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"488\" height=\"655\" src=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Image-report.png\" alt=\"White Paper: Royalty Pharma\" class=\"wp-image-49\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Image-report.png 488w, https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Image-report-224x300.png 224w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column tight-paragraph is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-custom-light-grey-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size wp-elements-ffe011dabc3356a38b7d86eda8045414\">Explore my first white paper focused on the therapeutics royalty investment business.<br><br>While these companies are typically valued like traditional pharma or biotech firms, this study offers a new <strong>valuation and risk assessment perspective<\/strong> that better captures their distinct business model and value drivers.<br><br>Using <strong>Royalty Pharma (RPRX)<\/strong> as an example, the study illustrates how an <strong>investment vehicle approach<\/strong> can better capture portfolio performance and the drivers of long-term value creation.<br><br>It also lays the groundwork for future research, applying a <strong>data driven quantamental framework<\/strong> to establish consistent valuation standards for this asset class.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-50\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-accent-4-background-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/RPRX_WhitePaper_forLinkedIn.pdf\" style=\"padding-top:0;padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-bottom:0;padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20)\">Download White Paper<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-50\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-accent-4-background-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Royaltyfundsvaluation_olivierleherle.pdf\" style=\"padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0\">Download Presentation<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-accent-4-color has-text-color has-link-color has-small-font-size wp-elements-11093557c048823094a3a0fc9c798400\">This research is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is intended to present a conceptual and analytical framework for understanding the valuation and risk analysis of royalty-based investment structures. The material contained herein does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, financial instrument, or investment product.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-accent-4-color has-text-color has-link-color has-small-font-size wp-elements-c1e8a76334d37d64af359f89fdcf696e\">Nothing in this paper should be relied upon for the purpose of making investment decisions or carrying out any transaction. The author and Lend-Rx SAS make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information contained herein and accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from its use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Event-driven valuation &amp; risk in biotech This paper explores an event-driven approach to biotech valuation, using MedinCell as a case study to illustrate how binary clinical and regulatory milestones translate into valuation risk. Moving beyond static rNPV frameworks, it applies a portfolio-based event-tree model combined with quarterly VaR and cVaR metrics to quantify the timing, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":1,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"my research: Quantamental Framework Therapeutics Royalty Investment","_seopress_titles_desc":"Applying a Data driven quantamental framework to value and risk assesment of Therapeutic Royalty Investment vehicule","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-19","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/19","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19"}],"version-history":[{"count":28,"href":"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/19\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":140,"href":"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/19\/revisions\/140"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lend-rx.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}